This blog's readers will immediately realise that this is the first time I am mentioning the name of Anwar Ibrahim on this blog. I have been avoiding mentioning his name for reasons of my own for almost 8 years but when the political realities itself keep pushing him forward despite the odds stacked against him, then we have to address that.
Without doubt, Anwar Ibrahim will win in the Kajang By-Election. I will be surprised otherwise. The are several reasons why he will win:
1) BN image nationwide is still negatively perceived generally despite whatever it is doing
2) BN has not been successful in managing its political image in the country
3) UMNO itself is still very fragmented with powerful groups within tussling for real control and power
4) too many sensitive issues not properly addressed by the Government
5) there is a general feeling that there is no leadership in the country - though this may not be true but that is the all round perception that is left unaddressed.
6) UMNO bloggers do not have the effective ability to confront the Pakatan perception machinery - there may even be a descend to vulgarity, profanity and arrogance which people are sick of.
BN's biggest problem in becoming strong again is none other than UMNO. UMNO, despite all it's rhetoric appears not to want to change. In terms of how it handles it's political problem. They are trapped in the nostalgia of total control which the laws and the circumstances of the country allowed them before 2004.
UMNO has weakened considerably since 1998 and the one chance they had in 2004, they blew it in 2008 primarily because of the political fight between Tun Abdullah and Tun Mahathir. It is no use for UMNO to deny that there was a concerted nationwide attempt and effort to weaken UMNO by UMNO big guns throughout 2004 to 2008 to oust Tun Abdullah.
Unfortunately for UMNO, there has been no radical and fundamental steps taken to cure UMNO from this internal political virus that is still plaguing UMNO. Admittedly it is a daunting task but a task that must be undertaken if UMNO wants to regain its former glory. However, this is not done. Hence, UMNO seems directionless in giving a political direction to the Malays in particular and to the Malaysians in general.
With such a virus affecting UMNO, does Pakatan really need to embark on a major election campaign to win the by-election? I think not.
Imagine the horror that awaits BN should Anwar win the by-election with an impressive majority?
Imagine the horror that awaits BN should Anwar become the YAB Chief Minister of Selangor?
I think I will not be exaggerating to say that if Anwar becomes the CM, he may even outshine the PM on various issues because Anwar has the politically ability to do what it takes.
At the end of the day, people like winners.
So, UMNO better be forewarned.